Policing

Yes you have guessed its crisis time again! Wouldnt it be nice if politicians actually all gathered together to serve the people properly. Politicians seem to talk about people assuming they know what people want and assuming makes an Ass out of U and ME!

The talks looked last week that they might actually lead somwhere positive. But now we have the usual that party wont talk to me and I dont want them to be Justice Minister. Are we a mature enough society to adequately handle the vital areas of policing and justice? (Answers on a postcard)

Looking ahead at what might happen.

1. Sinn Fein meet this weekend for an update on the talks against a backdrop of complaints against the DUP. Very little may publicly be said but bare in mind that SF would stand to gain the most if Assembly elections were called. DUP faces threats from TUV, UCUNF and fallout from the Robinson issues. My guess is that they will either opt for continued talks or park some issues until after the Westminster elections. I hope a deadline is not set because nothing will bring down the prospects of a deal quicker.

2. DUP need to have the parades issue resolved to their satisfaction so that they can gain confidence after the weeks of negative press. They will not accept a deadline. It will be hard for them to do a deal with SF ahead of the elections because of the mutiple threats to their vote. They may seek to do a deal with UUP/UCUNF over South Belfast and Fermanagh South Tyrone in order to secure support for their version of a deal on policing.

3. SDLP will have a new leader within a few weeks. They cannot allow the public impression to be that they are being ignored or sidelined by the DUP/SF. They will have to either reluctantly accept presumably the Alliance candidate or withdraw from the Executive. Withdrawal might send the message that the Nationalist community has limits to its patience, would garner them with a lot of community and PR support. In the likely event that they can get d'hondt run again that increasingly looks like the least worst option.

4. Alliance Party - David Ford increasingly looks like the incoming Justice Minister. This will remove from the party the right to say that they are the opposition. Effectively there will be an Assembly opposition of 4 MLAs - so much for democracy.

Overall its an election year with parties facing many challenges. Is this the best time to be discussing Policing and Justice? Possibly not but then next year we have Assembly elections. There is one other alternative

Let the British government handle the issue of Parades and let the NI Executive handle the rest. Brown will want this issue sorted before the elections and may come to Belfast in the coming weeks to get the deal done. Failing that it is likely that the Conservative Party will have to manage the issue and who knows how generous they will be on the budget front. It will be an interesting few weeks/months.